Citi slashes Bitcoin and Ethereum price targets as ETF flows cool

Citi revised its BTC forecast to $82,000 and ETH to $2,240, pointing to cooling institutional interest and negative ETF flows across major funds.

Citi has lowered its price targets for the two largest digital assets, further dampening investor sentiment across the cryptocurrency market.

The bank revises BTC and ETH forecasts

The American bank’s updated valuation projects Bitcoin to reach $82,000 within the next 12 months, a significant drop from its previous forecast of $112,000. For Ethereum, the target price was reduced from $3,175 to $2,240.

According to Reuters, analysts claim the primary driver for this revision is the weakening expectation of fresh institutional capital entering the market through ETF products.

This capital influx was a cornerstone of the strong price appreciation seen in crypto assets over the past year.

In a bearish scenario, Citi suggests Bitcoin could drop to $53,000 and Ethereum to $1,094, triggered by a combination of a global economic recession, fading investor appetite, and persistent outflows from ETF funds.

ETF outflows support cautious outlook

Data from FarSide Investors for June 30 reveals that pressure on ETF products is mounting. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net daily outflow of approximately $223 million. BlackRock’s IBIT fund bore the brunt of this trend, seeing outflows exceeding $212 million, while products from Fidelity and other management firms also reported negative movements.

Ethereum ETFs are also experiencing net outflows, though they remain more contained at roughly $28 million for the day. The most significant negative flow was recorded by BlackRock’s ETHA fund.

The broader market picture remains mixed. Spot Solana ETFs saw a decline of approximately $2.5 million, while XRP funds recorded negative flows of nearly $2.7 million. Hyperliquid ETFs also registered losses totaling $3 million.

Market sentiment remains highly cautious

Sentiment indicators reflect heightened uncertainty. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is currently held at 16 points, firmly in the “extreme fear” zone. Meanwhile, the “Altcoin Season” indicator remains below neutral levels at 49 points, suggesting that investors are continuing to reduce their exposure to higher-risk tokens.

The total crypto market capitalization has slipped to around $2.03 trillion. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $58,400, marking a nearly 7% decline over the last seven days. Ethereum is also facing a weekly loss of 6%, as most leading altcoins continue to lag behind.

Citi’s revision will likely intensify the focus on upcoming ETF flow data. After more than a year where institutional investment served as a primary market driver, signs of a sustained slowdown in these flows could cap the potential for a new upward cycle—especially if paired with a weakening macroeconomic environment and continued caution among major investors.