CLARITY Act Odds Plunge to 30% as Ethics Disputes Stall Bill

Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn reports CLARITY Act odds fell to 30% due to Senate math and ethics concerns involving President Trump’s crypto holdings.

According to Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, the CLARITY Act now has just a 30% chance of passing through Congress this year, a sharp decline from the previous 50% estimate.

This conclusion follows the release of the final 616-page consolidated bill text. The document merges proposals from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees with new provisions regarding law enforcement, ethics rules, and amendments to the GENIUS Act framework.

Senate Math Hinders Procedural Progress

Galaxy identifies the primary obstacle as the mathematical reality within the Senate.

To advance to a final vote, the bill requires support from 60 senators. Thorn notes that Republicans currently hold approximately 50 firm votes. Senators Rand Paul and Josh Hawley are expected to oppose the text, while Mitch McConnell remains absent from active legislative duties following his hospitalization in June.

This dynamic means the bill is unlikely to reach a final vote without securing support from at least several Democrats.

The legislative calendar adds further pressure. Galaxy points to July 30 as the practical deadline for moving the text, rather than the official Senate recess start on August 7. Procedural requirements necessitate several days for document processing; missing this window would significantly diminish the bill’s chances of passing in 2026.

Ethics Rules Become a Flashpoint

The most intense opposition stems from provisions regulating potential conflicts of interest for government officials, including President Donald Trump.

Seven Democratic senators involved in earlier negotiations labeled the current version “inadequate,” while Senator Elizabeth Warren stated the bill “must be rejected.”

Key objections raised by critics include:

• The temporary nature of restrictions—ethics provisions expire in 2029 rather than being permanent.
• Limited enforcement—violations can only be prosecuted by the Department of Justice, excluding state attorneys general or private plaintiffs.
• Revenue from existing crypto projects—critics argue the text allows the President to continue profiting from projects using his name or likeness, including the $TRUMP meme coin.
• Lack of investment limits—the bill does not prohibit the President or other high-ranking officials from owning or trading digital assets while participating in policy decisions that affect their value.

Trump’s Crypto Interests Fuel Political Tension

An analysis by the Democratic minority on the Senate Banking Committee suggests the current legislation fails to effectively prevent conflicts of interest arising from the President’s crypto activities.

The report claims the current language leaves the door open for revenue to be generated through licensing, family members, or other intermediary structures, rather than direct ownership of digital assets.

These specific provisions have led to a withdrawal of Democratic support. Republicans must now find a way to regain those votes if they hope the CLARITY Act will reach the 60-vote threshold required in the Senate.

While the Trump administration continues to push for rapid legislative approval, Galaxy’s latest assessment indicates that political disputes over ethics rules now pose a greater threat to the bill than the actual crypto market regulations themselves.