Analyst Warns Gold’s Record Run May Be Approaching a Breaking Point

Gold’s astonishing surge to fresh all-time highs has been widely embraced as proof of overwhelming market strength - but not everyone is convinced.

One well-known macro strategist, Henrik Zeberg, argues that beneath the excitement, the metal is showing signs of exhaustion that traders are overlooking.

Zeberg believes the recent price behavior resembles the final stretch of a maturing bull cycle rather than the beginning of a new one. His concern centers on a growing mismatch between price and momentum: while gold keeps nudging higher, its RSI has been sliding lower, suggesting the rally is losing fuel even as new highs appear on the chart. According to him, this type of divergence often warns that buyers are becoming overstretched.

He also points to the structure of gold’s consolidation. Instead of orderly pullbacks followed by continuation, the chart has formed a broad, sluggish range that has repeatedly rejected attempts to break decisively upward. Combine that with a long-standing trendline now looking increasingly fragile, and Zeberg sees the ingredients for a sharper correction. A clean break below that support, he says, would indicate not just a pause – but a potential trend failure.

What makes his warning stand out is its timing. 2025 has been a remarkably bullish year for gold: central banks increased purchases, investors flocked to safe-haven assets, and the metal blasted through dozens of new records. Some analysts expected this momentum to spill into 2026. Zeberg, however, argues that the core narrative behind the rally – inflation concerns and macro fear — is no longer strong enough to justify current prices. With sentiment stretched, even a modest shift in positioning could have an amplified impact.

Gold closed its last session near $4,198, slightly lower on the day but still boasting an enormous 60% gain year-to-date. Traders now turn their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where expectations of a rate cut continue to rise. Silver, meanwhile, has broken into its own set of new records.

Whether gold stabilizes or gives weight to Zeberg’s bearish outlook may depend heavily on how the Fed frames its policy path heading into early 2026.