Key Bitcoin Crash Signal Flashes Again, Says Analyst Ali Martinez

A historically accurate technical indicator that has predicted every major Bitcoin crash is flashing once more, warns crypto analyst Ali Martinez.

The Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential, a tool used to identify trend exhaustion and reversals, has just issued a rare quarterly sell signal—a setup that has historically preceded some of Bitcoin’s most brutal drawdowns.

History Repeats? Past Signals Triggered 75–85% Crashes

According to Martinez, the last two times this indicator appeared, it was followed by significant declines:

• In 2015, Bitcoin plunged 75% after the signal.
• In 2018, the drop was even steeper—over 85% from the highs.

Now, in mid-2025, the same quarterly TD Sequential signal is flashing again, raising concerns of a potential major correction. If history repeats itself, Martinez warns Bitcoin could drop below $40,000, a stark contrast to its current range above $100,000.

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A Rare But Respected Warning

While the TD Sequential is not often triggered on such long timeframes, its historical accuracy has made it a widely followed signal among technical analysts. Unlike daily or weekly indicators, the quarterly signal suggests large-scale market exhaustion and potential macro-level reversals.

Given Bitcoin’s prolonged sideways trend and rising profit-taking—highlighted by recent on-chain data from Glassnode—this warning adds to growing caution among market participants.