Indonesia Bans Polymarket Over Political Betting Concerns

Indonesia blocks Polymarket as authorities label the prediction platform illegal online gambling following bets on President Prabowo Subianto's future.

The Indonesian Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs has confirmed that access to Polymarket is now restricted within the country. The move follows reports that the platform allowed active trading on scenarios involving the potential withdrawal or departure of President Prabowo Subianto from office.

According to Alexander Sabar, the Director of Digital Supervision, the platform violates local laws by facilitating real-money bets on uncertain future events. Under Indonesian legislation, this structure is categorized as illegal online gambling. Authorities have already begun tracking and blocking related domains and social media profiles used to access the site.

Political Pressure Mounts in Indonesia

The ban coincides with a period of heightened tension surrounding President Prabowo’s economic and political strategies. Just days earlier, the Indonesian government rattled international markets with plans to increase state control over strategic commodities, including coal and palm oil—a shift that has sparked significant concern among foreign investors.

Market analysts suggest that this combination of aggressive economic policy and tightened digital oversight is shifting perceptions regarding Indonesia’s regulatory predictability. The decision against Polymarket is seen as a clear signal that authorities will not tolerate platforms that enable public financial speculation regarding the nation’s political stability.

Polymarket Faces Global Regulatory Headwinds

Indonesia is not the only nation taking a stand against the platform. Brazil has already implemented a nationwide ban on prediction markets lacking a local license, while France and Singapore have restricted access through IP blocking, citing violations of local gambling and sports betting regulations.

In the United States, regulatory heat is also intensifying. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is currently involved in legal disputes over whether prediction markets should be regulated as derivative financial instruments or treated as a form of unregulated gambling.

Meanwhile, Irish authorities are investigating suspicious betting activity related to local elections. This follows reports of unusually large positions being taken on the platform just before key political results were made public.

Ethical Concerns Surrounding Prediction Markets

Polymarket is under scrutiny for potential market manipulation and the use of insider information. In recent weeks, regulators and analysts have highlighted cases where anonymous accounts secured massive profits by betting on military operations and geopolitical events immediately before they occurred.

Blockchain analysis further reveals a heavy concentration of profits on the platform. Industry data suggests that roughly 0.1% of accounts generate approximately 67% of all profits, while more than 70% of average users end up with a loss.

These figures bolster arguments from regulators that prediction platforms are beginning to function more like high-risk financial gambling systems rather than the “information markets” their supporters claim them to be.