Whale Sell-Offs Threaten Bitcoin’s Rally Amid Persistent Onchain Outflows
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Bitcoin’s price recovery faces new headwinds as long-term holders - or “OG whales” - have been unloading massive amounts of BTC throughout 2025, sparking renewed fears of a deeper correction.
According to Capriole Investments co-founder Charles Edwards, these “super whales” have been liquidating their holdings at an unprecedented pace, spending over 1,000 BTC per hour since early 2025. Edwards shared on-chain data showing heavy selling from wallets dormant for seven years or more, describing the year’s activity as “very colorful” due to the surge in large transactions exceeding $100 million and even $500 million.
Bitcoin is currently trading nearly 19% below its October all-time high of $126,000, with analysts divided over whether the decline marks a healthy bull-cycle pause or the start of a more serious retracement driven by whale selling. Data from Glassnode confirms that long-term holders have been consistently moving large amounts of BTC since November 2024, suggesting a steady pattern of distribution rather than isolated profit-taking.
One major whale, identified by Lookonchain as “Bitcoin OG Owen Gunden,” recently moved 3,600 BTC (around $372 million), including 500 BTC deposited to Kraken, potentially signaling active liquidation.
However, not all analysts see these moves as outright selling. On-chain researcher Willy Woo suggested that some of the large transfers could be non-selling events, such as migrating funds to Taproot addresses for enhanced security or custody reshuffling among institutional treasuries.
Technically, Bitcoin’s price structure isn’t helping confidence. A break below the $100,650 support line could send BTC tumbling toward $89,600, representing a roughly 12% drop from current levels.
Analysts warn that Bitcoin must hold above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $100,900, to avoid a sharper correction toward $92,000 or lower.
While Bitcoin remains resilient compared to previous cycles, the persistent movement of coins from the oldest wallets adds a layer of uncertainty – and for traders eyeing new highs, the actions of these early adopters may prove to be one of the biggest obstacles standing in the way.
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