VanEck Flags Declining Hashrate as Potential Tailwind for Bitcoin

A recent research note from VanEck suggests that the latest slowdown in Bitcoin mining activity may be sending an unexpectedly constructive signal for the market.

According to the firm’s analysis, periods of declining network hashrate have historically tended to precede stronger Bitcoin performance rather than weakness.

In its mid-December “ChainCheck” report, VanEck analysts examined Bitcoin’s performance during different phases of mining activity. Their findings indicate that since 2014, Bitcoin has posted positive returns over the following 90 days roughly 65% of the time when hashrate was contracting. By comparison, forward returns were positive only 54% of the time when the network’s computing power was expanding.

The firm characterizes this pattern as a contrarian signal tied to miner capitulation. When operating costs rise and prices soften, less efficient miners are often forced to shut down, reducing hashrate and selling pressure. Historically, those conditions have tended to align with more favorable outcomes for long-term holders.

That dynamic appears to be resurfacing. VanEck noted that Bitcoin’s hashrate declined by about 4% in the month leading up to December 15, marking the sharpest contraction seen in more than a year. The report added that when hashrate compression persists for extended periods, subsequent returns have not only been more frequent, but also larger on average.

Miners Feel the Squeeze as Institutions Step In

The pressure on miners has intensified alongside Bitcoin’s recent pullback. VanEck highlighted a sharp deterioration in mining economics, particularly for mid-generation hardware such as the Antminer S19 XP. The breakeven electricity cost for operating such rigs has dropped from roughly $0.12 per kilowatt-hour in late 2024 to about $0.077 by mid-December 2025. This shift means only miners with access to very low power costs can continue operating profitably.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin itself remains volatile. After falling sharply from its peak above $126,000 in October, the asset has struggled to regain momentum, recently trading near $87,900 after briefly dipping toward the low $80,000 range in November.

While miners are under strain, VanEck notes that longer-term buyers have been quietly stepping in. Digital asset treasuries have increased accumulation during the recent drawdown, purchasing roughly 42,000 BTC between mid-November and mid-December. That pushed their combined holdings to approximately 1.09 million BTC, marking the largest monthly increase since late summer.

Looking ahead, VanEck expects many of these institutional players to adjust their financing strategies. Rather than relying on common stock issuance, the firm believes treasuries may increasingly turn to preferred shares to fund additional Bitcoin purchases.

Taken together, the report paints a familiar picture from past cycles: short-term stress among miners, declining hashrate, and steady accumulation by long-term holders. If historical patterns hold, VanEck argues, the current environment could ultimately prove more supportive for Bitcoin than it appears at first glance.