Oversold, Undervalued, or Unraveling? BTC Tests Critical Support Range

Bitcoin is struggling to regain its footing after dropping to roughly $95,000, a move sparked by renewed macro uncertainty and turbulence following the end of the U.S. government shutdown.

The abrupt sell-off has revived comparisons to 2019, when BTC also stumbled in the days immediately after government operations resumed.

Analysts note that this kind of whiplash isn’t unusual. One of them pointed out that Bitcoin showed nearly identical behavior during the 2019 shutdown recovery, suggesting this may be a recurring reaction to macro resets rather than a one-off anomaly.

Market historians are drawing attention to an even longer-term parallel. Another analyst, known for studying Bitcoin’s cyclical structures, argues that the current 2025 pattern closely mirrors the 2017 cycle. Both periods appear to be built around seven significant dips leading into a parabolic rally. In 2017, those dips averaged around 37%, while the present cycle shows seven pullbacks averaging roughly 25% – smaller in size but strikingly similar in rhythm.

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The last three drops of both cycles show almost the same behavior. Late in 2017, Bitcoin plunged 39%, 41% and 33% before entering its final vertical rally. According to EGRAG, the reduction in volatility suggests the market is compressing and storing energy beneath the surface, much like the calm before the 2017 blow-off top. His long-term model still points toward a move to roughly $175,000 once expansion begins.

Short-term indicators, meanwhile, show that bearish momentum may be losing its grip. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is deeply oversold, with RSI near 35 and the MACD flattening after an extended downtrend – conditions that often precede inflection points even if they don’t guarantee one. Traders are watching the $92,000–$95,000 region closely, viewing it as the range that must hold to maintain any bullish continuation.

Still, macro forces remain a drag on sentiment. Leverage has been wiped out, open interest has dropped sharply, and most traders remain defensive – a psychological landscape that often forms near the beginning of a new expansion leg in past cycles. Whether history repeats or global uncertainty overrides these patterns remains one of the market’s biggest questions.

For now, Bitcoin is attempting a modest rebound from the day’s lows, hovering around $95,800. The reaction in the mid-$90K zone will determine whether this dip becomes fuel for the next leg higher or a sign that deeper downside risks are still in play.