Major Institutions Rework Bitcoin Forecasts Amid Fading Corporate Demand

A noticeable shift is taking place among some of Bitcoin’s most vocal institutional supporters.

Several major firms known for consistently optimistic projections are now tempering their near-term expectations as market behavior shows signs of cooling. Rather than abandoning their long-term enthusiasm, these institutions are redefining the pace at which they believe Bitcoin will grow.

Standard Chartered, one of the earliest large banks to forecast six-figure Bitcoin valuations, has scaled back its timeline. The bank now expects the world’s leading digital asset to reach roughly $150,000 by the end of 2026 – a significant adjustment from its previous call for $300,000. Its long-standing target of half a million dollars has also been pushed further out, with 2030 now cited as the new horizon.

The reason for the recalibration stems from weakening institutional participation. The bank pointed out that corporate treasuries – once viewed as a powerful engine behind Bitcoin’s supply squeeze – have largely stepped away. Many companies that aggressively accumulated Bitcoin in previous cycles now lack the financial flexibility or motivation to continue expanding those positions. With that cohort fading, ETFs have become the main source of institutional demand, but those flows have slowed as well. Geoffrey Kendrick, who leads the bank’s digital-asset research, stated that corporate buying by digital-asset-focused firms appears to have peaked, leaving the market in a phase that favors consolidation rather than additional acceleration.

Bernstein, another high-profile bull, has likewise adjusted its shorter-term expectations. The firm no longer anticipates that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of this year, citing recent price weakness and quieter ETF inflows. Bernstein now envisions Bitcoin landing near $150,000 by late 2026 and approaching $200,000 the following year. Still, the firm maintains that Bitcoin has outgrown its historical boom-and-bust rhythm and is transitioning into a more measured, prolonged growth phase. Its long-range outlook remains extremely optimistic, with projections that the asset could test $1 million by 2033.

These revised estimates arrive at a moment when the market has been wrestling with sharp drawdowns. Bitcoin is trading near $94,000 – almost 30% below its record high from October. The asset did stage a modest rebound over the past day, gaining more than 4% while attempting to hold above key support levels.

However, ETF activity has added an extra layer of uncertainty. Spot Bitcoin funds recorded roughly $60 million in outflows on Monday, continuing a trend of softer demand. BlackRock’s IBIT – the largest of the group – saw around $2.3 billion in outflows throughout November, marking its biggest monthly withdrawal since launch. Although these redemptions are minor relative to overall assets under management, they have prompted questions about whether some investors are reducing exposure rather than accumulating during dips, a behavior that historically helped Bitcoin recover more rapidly after major corrections.

The evolving landscape suggests that large institutions still believe in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory, but are becoming more cautious about how quickly the asset can climb in the near future. In a market that has leaned heavily on institutional inflows throughout 2024 and 2025, that shift in tone may shape expectations for the months ahead.