Bitcoin’s Price Closely Mirrors ETF Inflows, Not Corporate Buys

While Bitcoin’s recent stagnation has triggered debate over what’s really influencing the market, analysts at K33 Research say exchange-traded fund flows are still the dominant force — far more so than the activity from corporate treasuries.

K33’s Vetle Lunde reports that spot Bitcoin ETF inflows maintain a tight link to price action, with a strong statistical correlation showing that these funds explain around 80% of the variance in 30-day BTC returns. Over the past month, however, ETF inflows have cooled — with just 13,000 BTC added — and prices have reflected that slowdown.

Meanwhile, the surge in Bitcoin treasury adoption isn’t having the same impact. Dozens of new public companies have jumped into the Bitcoin space in recent months, but many aren’t buying BTC on the open market. Instead, firms like Softbank-backed Twenty One are building large holdings via share-for-crypto swaps with existing whales like Tether and Bitfinex. These deals, which generate no fresh demand, have diluted the market effect of treasury accumulation. The correlation between these flows and price sits at a modest 0.18.

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Beyond flows, macro events are also shaping Bitcoin’s volatility. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran sent BTC tumbling to $98,200 last week, with a rapid bounce back to $105,000 as ceasefire hopes surfaced. The geopolitical scare triggered the sharpest single-day wipeout in perpetual futures open interest since last August, with traders offloading over 17,000 BTC in leveraged positions.

That risk-off behavior has dragged open interest to levels last seen in April, suggesting traders are scaling back. With Trump’s budget negotiations and tariff deadlines approaching, the market may not calm down anytime soon.