Bitcoin’s Next Move Hinges on Fed Policy and Global Trade Developments

Bitcoin’s latest rally faced resistance and bounced back from 116,000, with traders seemingly waiting for two major catalysts this week - the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on Wednesday and the outcome of the US-China trade negotiations.

The leading cryptocurrency has climbed roughly 10% since the Oct. 10 sell-off, but momentum is fading as sellers repeatedly defend the $116,000 resistance zone. Exchange order books from Binance and Coinbase reveal a thick layer of sell orders just above that level, while short liquidations have exceeded $49 million in the past 12 hours.

Bulls Face Stiff Resistance

Despite the recent rebound, Bitcoin’s upward move remains fragile. Global open interest has recovered to $31.5 billion, well below its October peak above $40 billion, signaling that traders are still cautious. Data from CoinGlass shows a clear split between retail and institutional behavior – smaller investors continue to buy dips, while large players are using rallies to reduce exposure.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, however, tell a different story. Net inflows have turned positive again, with over $260 million added in the past three sessions and nearly half a billion flowing in on Oct. 21, shortly after BTC dipped below $108,000.

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Awaiting the Fed and Global Signals

Markets are largely expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points, but crypto traders have been quick to scale back risk ahead of the announcement – a familiar pattern before FOMC meetings. Many are also keeping an eye on Thursday’s scheduled meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

A favorable outcome could reignite bullish sentiment, but if trade talks stumble, both equities and crypto could face a sharp pullback. Until then, analysts expect Bitcoin to stay locked in its current range between $110,000 and $116,000 – a pattern of uncertainty until the week’s major events play out.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $113,000, marking a 1.3% decline over the past 24 hours.