Bitcoin’s 2025 Pattern Points to Consolidation, Not Collapse

Bitcoin’s choppy performance throughout 2025 may actually be following one of its oldest and most reliable patterns.

Analyst Joao Wedson notes that Bitcoin typically spends around half the year closing in the red – roughly 170 daily losses per year, a trend visible across every cycle since 2010.

This year has already crossed that boundary. With 171 negative closes logged, Wedson argues that Bitcoin has likely absorbed most of its usual annual downside, shifting expectations away from a December selloff and toward a quieter, sideways finish.

Instead of signaling weakness, the crossing of the 170-day mark appears to function as a kind of exhaustion point. In past cycles, once Bitcoin hit this zone, momentum usually stalled rather than collapsed. Years such as 2014, 2018, and 2022 all showed a similar rhythm: heavy negative-day counts led to consolidation into year-end, with deeper turbulence arriving the following year – not immediately.

Wedson believes 2025 is shaping up the same way. If a significant correction is coming, he thinks the probability skews toward 2026, when markets historically tend to digest the aftershocks of extended negative-day streaks. For now, Bitcoin’s action near the end of the year looks more like the final stages of a flattening pattern rather than the start of a breakdown.

The takeaway, according to Wedson, is simple: the bulk of 2025’s weakness has already been spent. Any major downside risk now appears less tied to the final weeks of this year – and more to what awaits the market in the next one.