Bitcoin Treasury Stocks Lose Shine as Premiums Collapse

The corporate Bitcoin treasury trade, once one of the strongest sources of market demand, is showing clear signs of fatigue.

According to a K33 report, one in four publicly listed companies holding Bitcoin now trade at valuations below the value of their own BTC reserves.

Dilution risk curbs buying power

The shift matters because when firms issue new shares at a discount to their net asset value (NAV), the process becomes dilutive. In simple terms, companies end up giving away equity that’s worth more than the Bitcoin they raise to buy. This weakens the incentive – and the ability – for treasury firms to continue their aggressive accumulation.

K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde explained that the mismatch between market caps and reserves “substantially reduces” buyside demand from these players, who until recently were among the most consistent buyers of Bitcoin.

NAKA leads the collapse

The steepest drop has been at NAKA, the merger vehicle between KindlyMD and Nakamoto Holdings. Its market value has fallen by 96% from its highs, while its multiple to NAV plunged from 75 to just 0.7. Other firms trading below water include Tether-backed Twenty One, Semler Scientific, and The Smarter Web Company, all of which now hold an mNAV under 1, according to the K33 report.

Across the sector, the mean mNAV multiple is 2.8, down from 3.76 in April. The averages remain skewed by the largest players, while smaller companies are increasingly slipping below the line.

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Strategy’s premium hits a low

Even Strategy (MSTR), the flagship name in corporate Bitcoin adoption, has not been spared. Its premium to BTC value has dropped to 1.26 – the lowest since March 2024. As a result, the company has slowed its weekly purchases, reducing a critical source of market absorption that has been in place over the past year.

K33 added that these fading premiums are rational. Treasury firms function largely as accumulation vehicles and face heavier costs from fees, insider incentives, and complex structures. Premiums, it suggests, only make sense if the Bitcoin balance sheet delivers benefits to other operating businesses.

Demand shifts away from corporates

Treasury companies bought an average of just 1,428 BTC per day so far in September, the slowest pace since May. With public treasuries now controlling more than 1 million BTC, the marginal bid in the market appears to be shifting. The next leg of Bitcoin demand may rely less on corporate balance sheets and more on ETF flows and retail investors stepping back in.

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