Bitcoin Steadies as Markets Await Powell’s December Signal

Bitcoin is sitting at the center of a familiar year-end debate: strong liquidity signals suggest conditions are improving, yet traders remain hesitant after months of choppy macro surprises and cautious institutional flows.

The result is a market that looks capable of a rebound – but unwilling to move without a clear green light.

Instead of behaving like an asset gearing up for a seasonal push, Bitcoin is acting more like a market waiting for permission. Federal Reserve policy has become the main bottleneck. Investors want clarity on how the central bank plans to approach 2026 before making fresh commitments.

Coinbase Institutional shares that, underneath the pessimism, the setup is quietly improving. Liquidity indicators have turned higher, and the probability of a December rate cut has surged to 92%. The firm anticipated this shift months ago, predicting weakness through November followed by a potential reversal into the final weeks of the year. Those signals are now materializing – even if sentiment hasn’t caught up yet.

But many analysts believe Powell’s messaging will overshadow everything else. A rate cut paired with a signal that quantitative tightening is ending would likely unlock short-term momentum. A more cautious tone, however, could shut down the rally instantly. November’s sell-off — triggered largely by Powell’s hawkish remarks – remains fresh in traders’ minds.

On the technical side, the market may be stabilizing. Bitcoin has retested the $80,000 region and its 100-week average, both of which historically act as strong cycle supports. Chris Kim of Axis notes that renewed ETF access, including Vanguard’s reversal, adds to the list of slow-building positives.

A new variable has also entered the picture: speculation that Kevin Hassett could be tapped as the next Fed Chair. A more dovish leader would dramatically reshape expectations for 2026, potentially aligning Bitcoin’s next cycle with easier financial conditions.
For now, Bitcoin sits at the crossroads of improving liquidity and unresolved macro uncertainty – a market ready to move, but waiting for the signal.