Bitcoin Analyst Says July Bottom Signals Major Rally Ahead

Bitcoin’s price action may be echoing familiar cycle patterns, according to trader Merlijn. His latest analysis suggests the cryptocurrency may have already locked in its bottom earlier this summer, setting the stage for a potential explosive move in Q4.

Looking back at past cycles, Merlijn highlights that Bitcoin bottomed in July 2017 and again in July 2021. Both years followed U.S. election cycles, and in each case, the summer marked the turning point. “Every post-election year bottoms in July, never in September,” he argued, pointing out that 2025 appears to be following the same script.

While some traders are still waiting for another dip later this month, he believes the window has already closed. If the pattern holds, Q4 could ignite a new bullish leg sooner than many expect.

The mania phase still lies ahead

In a second update, Merlijn stressed that the “final Bitcoin mania” has yet to unfold. Every cycle, he explained, looks like it has peaked before the real parabolic blow-off phase begins. With over a decade of historical data showing the same tendency, he cautions against assuming the top is in.

His long-term chart, tracking Bitcoin’s trajectory within a buy-and-sell channel, suggests the market is still climbing toward the red “sell zone” that typically coincides with the euphoric end of each cycle. “Sell here?” he asked. “You’ll regret it when the chart goes vertical.”

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If Merlijn’s outlook proves correct, the recent consolidation near $110,000 may be less of a ceiling and more of a launchpad. The implication: patient holders could be rewarded, while short-term skeptics risk being caught off guard by a sudden surge.