Arthur Hayes Warns of Bitcoin Pullback to $90,000: Here is Why

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has issued a cautious outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, predicting a possible short-term downturn as the U.S. government shifts its liquidity strategy.

In his latest blog post, Hayes suggests that Bitcoin could retreat to the $90,000–$95,000 range ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference in August.

Stablecoins and Bonds: A New Liquidity Game

Hayes argues that the U.S. Treasury’s recent embrace of stablecoins is not a fintech-friendly move but a strategic pivot to strengthen traditional banks and fund government debt. According to Hayes, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is under pressure to refill the Treasury General Account (TGA) and sell trillions in bonds without sparking a rise in interest rates.

As institutional appetite for U.S. bonds remains weak, the government may look to stablecoin issuers within the banking system to absorb bond supply. Hayes estimates that stablecoin-backed liquidity could unlock up to $6.8 trillion in purchasing power, enabling banks to convert deposits into bond purchases.

Why Bitcoin May Suffer First

While this liquidity maneuver may eventually inject fresh capital into markets, Hayes warns it could dampen crypto prices in the short term. As liquidity shifts into bonds via stablecoins, Bitcoin could temporarily lose momentum.

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Hayes sees this risk as potentially pushing Bitcoin into the $90K–$95K zone, especially if USD liquidity tightens further. He also cautions that altcoins could face sharper losses, prompting his venture firm Maelstrom to exit illiquid altcoin positions entirely. Hayes added that Maelstrom may even consider trimming Bitcoin holdings depending on market behavior in the weeks ahead.

Market Neutrality Until August?

Hayes does not rule out further downside but believes the market may move sideways or slightly bearish until macro clarity emerges post-Jackson Hole. Until then, the crypto market remains in a delicate balance between long-term bullish momentum and short-term liquidity challenges.