Ethereum’s Q3 Breakout Signals Classic Altseason Pattern, Says Trader

In a recent post, he pointed to historical quarterly return data and behavioral flow cycles that signal the early stages of altseason.

“Ethereum is doing what it always does before altseason,” he wrote. “Outperforms $BTC in Q3 → leads rotation → ignites altcoin mania.”

The attached chart shows Ethereum’s Q3 returns for 2025 already at +50.76%, marking a powerful rebound following two negative quarters. This trend aligns with previous years—such as 2021 and 2020—where ETH surged in Q3, triggering capital rotation into mid- and low-cap altcoins.

The tweet outlines a four-phase cycle:

• Phase 1: Bitcoin leads the market as funds flow into BTC.
• Phase 2: Ethereum begins outperforming BTC, with signs of a shift in momentum.
• Phase 3: Large caps rally as money spreads beyond ETH.
• Phase 4: Altseason ignites, with explosive moves in mid- and small-cap tokens.

This cycle has played out repeatedly, and ETH’s current Q3 performance appears to be confirming its role as a market rotation leader.

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Merlijn’s message was clear: “When ETH leads, alts follow. Always. Don’t get shaken out now!”

With Ethereum regaining momentum and altcoin narratives heating up, analysts and traders alike are watching closely for confirmation of the next full-scale altseason.