Bitcoin Loses Momentum: Traders Debate If This Is the Big Breakdown

Bitcoin’s price briefly fell to $99,000 on Tuesday, breaking under its 365-day moving average (MA) and sparking fresh debate over whether this signals the start of a new bear market or a temporary correction.

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the 365-day MA – currently around $102,000 – acts as a major macro indicator of Bitcoin’s trend direction. “It was the final confirmation of the 2022 bear market,” noted Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, warning that the price must recover above it quickly to avoid a similar downturn.

Bitcoin has since rebounded slightly, trading near $102,015 at the time of writing, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Bear or Bull Pause?

Market analysts are divided. Andri Fauzan Adziima of Bitrue argued that the drop marks a technical bear market, as Bitcoin has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high of $126,000 in early October. Still, he called it merely a “routine cleanse” – the fourth correction in the 2025 bull cycle – pointing out that past cycles often saw 40% rebounds within two months after such pullbacks.

Others remain cautiously optimistic. Tom Cohen, head of investments and trading at Algoz Technology, said that Bitcoin would need to break below $100,000 decisively to confirm a prolonged bear phase. “As long as that line holds, we could just as easily be setting up for a Santa Claus rally,” Cohen added, citing macro uncertainty around U.S. interest rate decisions and upcoming political developments.

While opinions differ, traders are watching the $100,000 support level closely – a make-or-break line that could define whether the next chapter is a bearish breakdown or a bullish rebound.