Bitcoin’s October Slump Sparks Debate Over What Comes Next

Bitcoin is poised to close October in the red for the first time in seven years, breaking its long-standing “Uptober” winning streak.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency has fallen roughly 3.3% this month, trading near $109,481, with just hours left before the monthly candle closes.

A Rare Red October

Since 2019, Bitcoin has posted uninterrupted October gains, a trend that earned the month its “Uptober” nickname. Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods, delivering positive returns in 10 out of the last 12 years, according to CoinGlass data. The last red Octobers occurred in 2014 and 2018.

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This year’s reversal followed a mid-month sell-off driven by U.S.–China tariff tensions and tepid market reaction to the Federal Reserve’s 0.25% rate cut, which did little to improve sentiment. “The crypto market humbled a lot of traders this month – momentum faded, confidence shaken,” said trader AAG on X.

November: Rally Setup or Warning Sign?

Analysts remain divided on whether the weak monthly close signals a deeper correction or a setup for a rebound. Crypto Rover cautioned that the last time Bitcoin ended October in the red – in 2018 – it tumbled 36% the following month. Others, like Jelle, argue that a red October often precedes a “stronger November rally.”

Historically, November is Bitcoin’s best month, with an average gain of 46% over the past decade. The fourth quarter has also been its most profitable period, delivering an average 78% increase between October and December. Even during bear markets, Q4 has produced some of Bitcoin’s biggest moves – including a 480% surge in 2017.

If seasonal trends hold, analysts suggest Bitcoin could recover in November and potentially aim for $150,000 by the end of 2025, continuing its long-term uptrend despite short-term volatility.