Bitcoin’s Soaring Price Could End the Cycle for Everyday Traders

Bitcoin is becoming increasingly out of reach for average investors, raising doubts about whether the current bull market can extend beyond the traditional four-year cycle.

Crypto intelligence firm 10x Research warns that the asset’s soaring price is limiting sustained retail participation, a factor that could threaten the predicted continuation of the rally.

According to 10x Research, Bitcoin’s diminishing returns – while often interpreted as a sign of market maturity – also challenge the validity of the widely cited Bitcoin cycle theory.

The firm cautions against relying heavily on patterns from the cryptocurrency’s previous four cycles, noting that 16 years of trading history is too short to draw firm statistical conclusions.

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Despite these concerns, Bitcoin may still reach a cycle top of around $125,000 by the end of the year, according to 10x’s projections. This estimate is considerably more conservative than some popular models, such as the stock-to-flow forecast that predicts a surge to $1 million, or Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick’s projection of $200,000 by the end of 2025 and $500,000 by 2028.

Interestingly, institutional and “smart money” traders continue to increase their Bitcoin exposure. Data from Nansen shows that Binance-native Bitcoin (BTCB) ranks among the top holdings for these sophisticated investors, alongside more speculative tokens. This trend suggests that while retail accessibility may be shrinking, professional and institutional participation in Bitcoin remains robust.