Robinhood Explores Global Expansion of Prediction Markets Business

Robinhood is weighing how to take its prediction markets business beyond U.S. borders, according to a Bloomberg report.

The trading platform has begun discussions with overseas regulators, including the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), to assess how such products would be classified and overseen in international markets.

In the U.S., prediction market event contracts are regulated as futures, putting them under the jurisdiction of commodities and derivatives watchdogs. Elsewhere, however, the same instruments are often treated as forms of gambling, placing them within a different regulatory framework.

“It’s a swap here in the United States,” explained JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president and general manager of futures and international. “So the question would be where is swap oversight, let’s say in the UK? That’s a question that we’ve been asking the FCA, how do we work it?”

The potential expansion comes as Robinhood’s prediction markets have shown explosive growth. CEO Vlad Tenev revealed this week that the platform has processed 4 billion event contracts to date, with 2 billion completed in the third quarter alone. His announcement drove Robinhood shares higher as investors weighed the revenue potential of a global rollout.

If Robinhood succeeds in navigating the complex regulatory patchwork, prediction markets could become one of its next major international growth drivers.

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Prediction markets are platforms where participants trade contracts tied to the outcome of future events, such as elections, sports, economic data, or policy decisions. Each contract reflects the probability of an event happening, for example, a contract priced at $0.70 implies a 70% chance of occurrence. If the event occurs, the contract settles at full value, rewarding holders; if not, it expires worthless.

By aggregating the collective views and incentives of traders, prediction markets often produce forecasts that can be more accurate than polls or expert analysis. In the United States, these products are generally treated as derivatives and regulated like futures, while in other regions they are categorized closer to gambling. Their appeal lies in blending speculation, data aggregation, and real-world insight into a single tradable instrument.

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