Here’s When the Bitcoin Cycle May Peak, Based on Past bull Markets

According to a new chart shared by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, the current Bitcoin market cycle may be entering its final stretch—with fewer than 100 days remaining before a potential market top.

The analysis compares the current cycle’s trajectory (2022 to 2025) to previous bull markets, specifically the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles, suggesting a possible peak in October 2025.

The chart plots Bitcoin’s percentage growth from each cycle low over time, and the similarities are striking. In all three cycles, BTC experienced an early surge, a period of mid-cycle consolidation, and a late-cycle acceleration in gains. The black line representing the current cycle is closely tracking the patterns of 2017 and 2021, both of which topped roughly 1,000 days after the cycle low.

If the current trend continues to mirror past behavior, that would place the Bitcoin peak in the October 2025 window—fewer than 100 days from now. While each cycle has its own macro context, this pattern suggests that historical rhythm still plays a powerful role in shaping market expectations.

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This projection coincides with other data points, including the timing of Bitcoin’s halving cycles and the typical post-halving surge seen in previous years. However, some analysts argue that this time could be different, citing new market forces such as spot Bitcoin ETFs, stronger institutional adoption, and regulatory shifts under the Trump administration.

Still, the cyclical data is hard to ignore. If October does mark the top, it may signal a final window for late-cycle gains before the market enters a new accumulation phase. Whether or not history repeats exactly, traders are watching closely—because timing the top could be critical.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.