Analysis Firm Explains Why Bitcoin’s Breakout Looks Different This Time

Bitcoin’s surge to new all-time highs is playing out differently than previous rallies, according to a July 11 report by crypto research and investment firm Matrixport.

The company argues that the rally is being driven primarily by institutional inflows into spot ETFs, rather than speculative retail activity or leveraged trading.

In its latest Matrix on Target report, Matrixport highlights that $49 billion has poured into spot Bitcoin ETFs since their January 2024 launch, with momentum accelerating since mid-April. The firm suggests that this persistent ETF demand, combined with low funding rates and restrained retail participation, signals a fundamentally healthier uptrend.

“Unlike past breakouts, this move shows minimal leverage and limited retail froth,” the report states. Open interest is rising steadily, but without the aggressive funding spikes typically associated with overheated markets.

Matrixport also points to macroeconomic tailwinds. Inflation has stayed contained despite tariff-driven fears, with recent CPI prints falling at or below 2.4%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears to be leaning toward interest rate cuts, potentially as soon as September. According to FOMC minutes, Bitcoin rallied 2% following signs of a dovish pivot during the June meeting.

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Another major catalyst could come from Washington. Matrixport notes that the GENIUS Act—legislation that could reshape digital asset regulation—is moving rapidly through Congress. Combined with July’s historically bullish seasonality, these developments create a rare convergence of positive factors.

Matrixport concludes that this breakout stands apart from past rallies because it’s fueled by long-term spot demand rather than leveraged speculation. With major policy signals and CPI data still ahead, the firm believes the market has yet to fully price in the bullish case.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.