Which Crypto ETFs Could Get SEC Approval in 2025? Here Are the Chances

With the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) already greenlighting spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, attention is now turning to the next wave of crypto-backed exchange-traded funds.

According to Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the second half of 2025 could be pivotal, with several altcoin ETFs nearing potential approval.

The analysts have updated their SEC approval odds for a range of crypto ETFs, citing growing regulatory clarity, increasing institutional interest, and the precedent set by earlier spot ETF approvals.

95% Approval Odds: High-Confidence Candidates

Three digital assets lead the pack with 95% approval odds in 2025:

• Solana (SOL): Backed by multiple major firms including VanEck, Fidelity, Bitwise, and 21Shares. The SEC has acknowledged the 19b-4 filing, and a final decision is due October 10, 2025. It’s seen as “likely” to be treated as a commodity and already has CFTC-regulated futures.
• XRP: Filed by firms like Grayscale, Bitwise, and WisdomTree. With a decision deadline of October 17, 2025, it benefits from clarity in its legal status and increasing institutional support.
• Litecoin (LTC): With filings from Canary, Grayscale, and Coinshares, the ETF is seen as a low-risk candidate. Approval odds are set at 95%, with a final decision due October 2, 2025.

These assets all meet the SEC’s informal criteria: significant market liquidity, CFTC-regulated futures, and recognition as commodities rather than securities.

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90% Approval Odds: Strong Contenders, Slightly Lower Certainty

Four altcoins fall just below the top tier, with 90% odds of approval in 2025:

• Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) both have final decision dates in October 2025 and are backed by Grayscale and other filers. Despite DOGE’s memecoin status, both are likely to be viewed as commodities.
• Polkadot (DOT) and HBAR (Hedera) have final deadlines in November 2025. DOT filings come from Grayscale and 21Shares, while HBAR is backed by Canary and Grayscale. Both assets have futures markets and are well integrated into institutional frameworks.
• Avalanche (AVAX) joins this tier with filings by Grayscale and VanEck. Its SEC decision deadline is December 12, 2025.

60%–50% Approval Odds: Regulatory Uncertainty Persists

Approval is less likely for several newer or less clearly defined assets:

• SUI (60% odds): Final decision expected by December 21, 2025. Its regulatory treatment remains “unknown”, and it lacks CFTC-regulated futures.
• TRON (TRX) and PENGU (50% odds each): Both have filings led by Canary. However, their final deadlines (January 23, 2026 and March 12, 2026) fall outside the 2025 window. TRON’s regulatory status is unclear, and PENGU lacks institutional traction and CFTC coverage.

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Crypto Index and Basket ETFs Also in Play

In addition to individual assets, filings for crypto basket/index ETFs by Grayscale, Bitwise, Hashdex, and Franklin are under review. With a decision due July 2, 2025, these products are assigned 95% odds of approval and are widely expected to be part of the SEC’s first major wave of multi-asset ETF approvals.

Conclusion

The SEC appears poised to open the door to a broader range of crypto ETFs in 2025. While Solana, XRP, and Litecoin lead the field with near-certain odds, a handful of altcoins like DOGE, ADA, and AVAX are not far behind. However, assets with less clarity—like SUI, TRX, and PENGU—may face a steeper regulatory path.

As the ETF race heats up, all eyes will be on the SEC in the second half of 2025.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.