Cardano ETF Approval Odds Hit Record High on Polymarket

A growing chorus of traders now believes that a U.S.-listed Cardano ETF is becoming more a matter of “when” than “if.”

On prediction platform Polymarket, contracts that pay out if the Securities and Exchange Commission signs off on a spot ADA fund before the end of 2025 traded Friday at an implied 79 percent probability—the highest reading since the market opened. The surge in conviction caps a steady climb from roughly 60 percent in early spring and reflects wider optimism that the SEC, under its new chairman Paul Atkins, is finally ready to bless a broader range of crypto products.

Behind the shift is a flurry of back-channel meetings between regulators and heavyweight asset managers. According to Bloomberg ETF specialists Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the tone of those discussions has been “remarkably constructive,” prompting the pair to raise their own odds for approvals on a basket of alt-coin funds—including Cardano, XRP and Dogecoin—to ninety percent. Fund sponsors argue that a regulated vehicle would give institutions an easy way to gain exposure without the headaches of self-custody, and the SEC appears increasingly receptive.

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Yet enthusiasm on futures markets has not translated into short-term price gains. ADA has logged five consecutive down sessions, slipping a little more than one percent on the week as a broader risk-off mood—sparked in part by Middle-East tensions—triggered nearly a billion dollars in crypto-asset liquidations. On-chain data from Santiment show that large holders moved in and out of 230 million ADA within a 48-hour window, a round-trip that underscores lingering uncertainty even among whales.

For long-term bulls, though, the near-term volatility matters less than the structural shift underway in Washington. If the SEC does green-light a spot Cardano fund, it will mark the agency’s most significant sign-off since the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs—and could open the floodgates to a new wave of institutional demand. Until then, prediction markets will remain the arena where optimism prices itself in real time.

Alexander Stefanov

With over 8 years of experience in the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, Alexander is a seasoned content creator and market analyst dedicated to making digital assets more accessible and understandable. He specializes in breaking down complex crypto trends, analyzing market movements, and producing insightful content aimed at educating both newcomers and seasoned investors. Alexander has built a reputation for delivering timely and accurate analysis, while keeping a close eye on regulatory developments, emerging technologies, and macroeconomic trends that shape the future of digital finance. His work is rooted in a passion for innovation and a firm belief that widespread education is key to accelerating global crypto adoption.