Bitcoin Faces Risk of Major Decline After Months Without New Highs

Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently cautioned that Bitcoin (BTC) could be vulnerable to a major downturn after failing to establish new record highs for an extended period. Brandt noted that Bitcoin’s inability to sustain upward momentum over the past eight months might be a warning sign.

Hey Bitcoiners
Are you familiar with the concept of “market analogs?”
Here is something to think about
It has been 30 weeks since $BTC made an ATH
Whenever has not made a decisive new ATH within this time length a 75%+ decline has occurred pic.twitter.com/CUyK4C2W93

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) October 11, 2024

Brandt pointed out that it has been 30 weeks since Bitcoin last reached an all-time high. Based on historical patterns, he explained that when BTC fails to achieve a new ATH within a similar timeframe, the cryptocurrency often experiences a significant decline of over 75%.

Reflecting on Bitcoin’s current state, Brandt evoked an old market saying: “Markets that don’t go up usually can’t go up.” While his analysis presented a bearish outlook, he clarified that this was an observation, not a definitive prediction, emphasizing that Bitcoin remains a substantial part of his portfolio.

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In contrast to his recent warning, Brandt had earlier outlined a more optimistic scenario for Bitcoin. He highlighted that significant gains often occur in the latter half of a halving cycle. Looking ahead, he projected a potential surge to $135,000 by August or September 2025, while cautioning that a drop below $48,000 would invalidate his analysis.