A historically accurate technical indicator that has predicted every major Bitcoin crash is flashing once more, warns crypto analyst Ali Martinez.
The Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential, a tool used to identify trend exhaustion and reversals, has just issued a rare quarterly sell signal—a setup that has historically preceded some of Bitcoin’s most brutal drawdowns.
According to Martinez, the last two times this indicator appeared, it was followed by significant declines:
Now, in mid-2025, the same quarterly TD Sequential signal is flashing again, raising concerns of a potential major correction. If history repeats itself, Martinez warns Bitcoin could drop below $40,000, a stark contrast to its current range above $100,000.
While the TD Sequential is not often triggered on such long timeframes, its historical accuracy has made it a widely followed signal among technical analysts. Unlike daily or weekly indicators, the quarterly signal suggests large-scale market exhaustion and potential macro-level reversals.
Given Bitcoin’s prolonged sideways trend and rising profit-taking—highlighted by recent on-chain data from Glassnode—this warning adds to growing caution among market participants.
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