Key Bitcoin Crash Signal Flashes Again, Says Analyst Ali Martinez

A historically accurate technical indicator that has predicted every major Bitcoin crash is flashing once more, warns crypto analyst Ali Martinez.

The Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential, a tool used to identify trend exhaustion and reversals, has just issued a rare quarterly sell signal—a setup that has historically preceded some of Bitcoin’s most brutal drawdowns.

History Repeats? Past Signals Triggered 75–85% Crashes

According to Martinez, the last two times this indicator appeared, it was followed by significant declines:

• In 2015, Bitcoin plunged 75% after the signal.
• In 2018, the drop was even steeper—over 85% from the highs.

Now, in mid-2025, the same quarterly TD Sequential signal is flashing again, raising concerns of a potential major correction. If history repeats itself, Martinez warns Bitcoin could drop below $40,000, a stark contrast to its current range above $100,000.

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A Rare But Respected Warning

While the TD Sequential is not often triggered on such long timeframes, its historical accuracy has made it a widely followed signal among technical analysts. Unlike daily or weekly indicators, the quarterly signal suggests large-scale market exhaustion and potential macro-level reversals.

Given Bitcoin’s prolonged sideways trend and rising profit-taking—highlighted by recent on-chain data from Glassnode—this warning adds to growing caution among market participants.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.