Here’s What Prediction Markets Are Saying About Bitcoin’s Next Move

Bitcoin’s recent breakout above $110,000 has reignited bullish sentiment, with crypto prediction markets signaling growing confidence in further gains.

On Polymarket, the odds of BTC hitting $115,000 within days have jumped to 64%, up from just 14% last week.

The price surge follows a steady two-month recovery from April’s low of $74,500. Analysts suggest the rise is driven by institutional inflows, particularly into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted billions in May alone. Reece Hobson of eToro points to increased global liquidity and ETF demand as key factors behind the move.

Market commentators say Bitcoin is attracting two kinds of buyers—those seeking high-growth opportunities and others viewing it as a hedge, creating a strong base for price support. Over $120 billion in BTC has reportedly been accumulated recently by major investors anticipating broader economic stress.

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Looking ahead, forecasts are increasingly optimistic. Ari10’s Mateusz Kara sees the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year’s end, helped by potential Fed rate cuts and reduced geopolitical risk. Others, like Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick, predict BTC could touch $120,000 in the short term, while Hobson sees upside toward $155,000 if trading activity holds.

Yet, caution persists. Illia Otychenko of CEX.IO warns that a decline in both spot and derivatives volumes—down over 30%—could hint at weakening momentum beneath the surface. He notes that while the trend remains upward, the market is vulnerable to sharp swings.

Bitcoin’s rally is building fast, but with volatility still lurking, traders may be in for a bumpy ride.

Alexander Stefanov