Bitcoin’s Climb Above $100K Looks Different This Time — Here’s Why

Bitcoin’s return to six-figure territory has reignited market optimism, but unlike the short-lived surge seen in January, the current rally appears to be built on firmer ground.

This time, macroeconomic indicators are playing in Bitcoin’s favor. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has slipped from 109 to under 100 since the start of the year, while 10-year Treasury yields have softened to 4.52%, easing financial conditions and boosting appetite for risk-on assets. Even with 30-year yields above 5%, the market views this as supportive for assets considered hedges against inflation—particularly gold and Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, stablecoin liquidity is surging. The total market capitalization of dollar-pegged assets like USDT and USDC has risen to an all-time high of $151 billion, up nearly 9% since the winter months. Analysts interpret this as a sign of sidelined capital preparing to enter the market, fueling potential upside in crypto.

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Unlike previous bull runs driven by retail speculation, the current momentum appears to be led by institutional flows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $42.7 billion in cumulative inflows—surpassing January’s high—while CME futures open interest has climbed to $17 billion. Though still below its December peak, the uptick signals rising institutional activity.

Notably absent this time is the speculative frenzy in meme coins. Tokens like DOGE and SHIB remain largely dormant, suggesting a more measured market mood. Similarly, perpetual futures funding rates remain subdued, indicating that leverage hasn’t overheated the system.

In contrast to prior euphoric spikes, this rally carries the hallmarks of a more structurally sound advance—driven less by hype and more by fundamentals, liquidity, and institutional conviction.

Alexander Stefanov