Bitcoin’s Bull Run Intact? Analyst Says Bear Market Unlikely

Bitcoin’s price trajectory suggests that a bear market is unlikely this year, according to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant.

His analysis focuses on key price benchmarks that historically signaled downturns, but current market conditions indicate continued strength.

A crucial factor in this outlook is the cost basis of different Bitcoin holders. Institutional investors, including ETFs and custody wallets, hold Bitcoin at an average price of $89,000.

Meanwhile, Binance traders have an entry point around $59,000, and mining companies hold BTC at roughly $57,000. In previous crashes—such as those in 2022, 2020, and 2018—dipping below mining firms’ cost basis signaled the start of prolonged downturns.

However, Bitcoin remains well above this danger zone. Veteran whales, who accumulated BTC at $25,000, have also never seen prices fall beneath their entry point.

Another major player, MicroStrategy, has an average cost basis of $65,033 and currently holds nearly $46 billion worth of Bitcoin, reinforcing the strong institutional backing behind the asset.

Even if Bitcoin experiences a steep pullback, Young Ju argues that it wouldn’t necessarily indicate a shift to a bearish phase. He suggests that a 30% decline from a future peak—potentially dropping from $110,000 to around $77,000—could be part of a healthy bull market correction rather than a sign of long-term weakness.