Bitcoin Still on Track for $100K, but Key Challenge Lies Ahead

Bitcoin (BTC) may dip below $88,000 before continuing its push towards $100,000, as noted in a recent Glassnode report.

The report highlights an “air gap” between $76,000 and $88,000, a price range left underdeveloped due to BTC’s rapid rally. This is part of the typical price discovery phase, where rallies, corrections, and consolidations help form stable price ranges. As Bitcoin works through this period, understanding the supply distribution is crucial, as it could reveal key zones of support and resistance that shape its trajectory.

Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are playing a key role in the current market, returning previously dormant coins to circulation. Since September, LTHs have distributed around 507,000 BTC, with profit-taking reaching record levels.

The report also suggests that Bitcoin’s current rally mirrors the patterns seen in March, when significant supply re-accumulation at lower levels supported the price rise to new highs. As LTHs realize substantial profits, the market faces both opportunities and challenges, with some redistribution of coins needed to absorb sell-side pressure.

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Although selling pressure is increasing, demand remains resilient enough to absorb the supply. The majority of the coins being sold were held for 6 months to a year, suggesting a swing-trade strategy to capitalize on recent market momentum.

Investors are securing profits across various return brackets while maintaining long-term exposure. The current period of consolidation could set the stage for sustained upward momentum once profit-taking pressures are absorbed, with the $100,000 target remaining within reach.

Alexander Stefanov