Recently, the price of Bitcoin has seen a significant drop, causing concern among investors and market analysts.
Despite this recent decline, Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, offered an outlook that may reassure enthusiasts of Bitcoin. Hayes discussed historical economic cycles and their impact on Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset.
He classifies historical economic cycles into local inflation cycles and broader global ones. The BitMEX co-founder characterized the current economic environment as a local cycle marked by major geopolitical and monetary policy changes.
Within this cycle, Hayes pointed to the transition from a US-dominated unipolar world to a multipolar one with rising powers such as China, Brazil and Russia. He emphasized that governments are increasingly using financial repression and large-scale money printing to finance deficits, which has a negative impact on asset valuations and wealth preservation.
During such periods, Hayes argues that Bitcoin outperforms traditional assets. Unlike gold, which relies on nature to maintain its ledger and has a slow physical transfer, Bitcoin’s ledger is maintained through a blockchain, allowing for fast transactions. In his view, this makes Bitcoin a more attractive safe-haven asset than gold in local cycle conditions.
Finally he added:
Bitcoin is better while gold is worse. This is why Bitcoin has stolen some of gold’s thunder from 2009 to now.
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