With the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) already greenlighting spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, attention is now turning to the next wave of crypto-backed exchange-traded funds.
According to Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the second half of 2025 could be pivotal, with several altcoin ETFs nearing potential approval.
The analysts have updated their SEC approval odds for a range of crypto ETFs, citing growing regulatory clarity, increasing institutional interest, and the precedent set by earlier spot ETF approvals.
Three digital assets lead the pack with 95% approval odds in 2025:
These assets all meet the SEC’s informal criteria: significant market liquidity, CFTC-regulated futures, and recognition as commodities rather than securities.
Four altcoins fall just below the top tier, with 90% odds of approval in 2025:
Approval is less likely for several newer or less clearly defined assets:
In addition to individual assets, filings for crypto basket/index ETFs by Grayscale, Bitwise, Hashdex, and Franklin are under review. With a decision due July 2, 2025, these products are assigned 95% odds of approval and are widely expected to be part of the SEC’s first major wave of multi-asset ETF approvals.
The SEC appears poised to open the door to a broader range of crypto ETFs in 2025. While Solana, XRP, and Litecoin lead the field with near-certain odds, a handful of altcoins like DOGE, ADA, and AVAX are not far behind. However, assets with less clarity—like SUI, TRX, and PENGU—may face a steeper regulatory path.
As the ETF race heats up, all eyes will be on the SEC in the second half of 2025.
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