What Price Bitcoin Could Reach If ETF Demand Grows, According to Citi

Citigroup analysts say the key to Bitcoin’s future isn’t mining cycles or halving math—it’s ETF inflows.

In a new projection, the bank outlines three possible price paths for Bitcoin in 2025, each dependent on how much institutional money keeps pouring into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

• In their base case, Citi forecasts Bitcoin reaching $135,000 by the end of the year, assuming inflows stabilize around $15 billion.
• A bullish case—where inflows accelerate—could push BTC to nearly $200,000, the analysts said.
• A bearish scenario would emerge if capital inflows slow or reverse, though Citi didn’t provide a specific downside target.

The research underscores a growing reality: spot Bitcoin ETFs now dominate market direction. Citi noted that over 40% of BTC’s 2025 price movement is already linked to ETF-related activity—outstripping traditional models like stock-to-flow or Metcalfe’s law.

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The implication? Bitcoin’s price is increasingly tethered to Wall Street demand. As massive funds like BlackRock’s IBIT near $100 billion in assets, BTC is no longer just a retail play or decentralized network—it’s becoming a macro asset shaped by portfolio managers and institutional flows.

With this shift, volatility may reflect the rhythm of ETF subscriptions and redemptions more than on-chain behavior or long-term holder supply. For traders and analysts alike, ETF tracking might now be more predictive than mining metrics or wallet activity.

As the landscape changes, one message from Citi stands out: Bitcoin is entering its ETF era—and price targets will follow the money.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.