A number of economic indicators associated with forecasting recessions are currently reporting warning signals.
The Game of Trades investment research platform, pointed out the presence of serious difficulties in the labor market, where the pace of job cuts is accelerating aggressively.
Historically, since 1995, such trends have preceded recessions. Recent indications show that annual permanent job losses have risen to levels seen during the dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, raising fears of a potential recession in the second half of 2024
Additionally, data from AlphaSense indicates that many US corporations are likely to undertake mass layoffs as references to “operational efficiency“, especially since 2020.
Despite the current bull market momentum, experts warn that the US could be facing one of the worst recessions in history, potentially rivaling the Great Depression of 1929. Two-year Treasury yields are forecast to drop sharply, which also is a signal of impending economic collapse.
Speculation has focused on the timing of the recession, with many predicting it will occur in the second half of 2024, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
The U.S. economy may be closer to a downturn than many realize, according to Jay Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo.
Morgan Stanley has issued a cautionary outlook on the U.S. dollar, predicting a major decline over the coming year as Federal Reserve rate cuts take hold.
Legendary investor Ray Dalio has issued a stark warning about the trajectory of U.S. government finances, suggesting the country is drifting toward a series of severe economic shocks unless its debt spiral is urgently addressed.
Steve Eisman, the famed investor known for forecasting the 2008 housing collapse, is sounding the alarm—not on overvalued tech stocks or interest rates, but on the escalating risk of global trade disputes.