A number of economic indicators associated with forecasting recessions are currently reporting warning signals.
The Game of Trades investment research platform, pointed out the presence of serious difficulties in the labor market, where the pace of job cuts is accelerating aggressively.
Historically, since 1995, such trends have preceded recessions. Recent indications show that annual permanent job losses have risen to levels seen during the dot-com bubble, the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, raising fears of a potential recession in the second half of 2024
Additionally, data from AlphaSense indicates that many US corporations are likely to undertake mass layoffs as references to “operational efficiency“, especially since 2020.
Despite the current bull market momentum, experts warn that the US could be facing one of the worst recessions in history, potentially rivaling the Great Depression of 1929. Two-year Treasury yields are forecast to drop sharply, which also is a signal of impending economic collapse.
Speculation has focused on the timing of the recession, with many predicting it will occur in the second half of 2024, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s upcoming monetary policy meeting, set for June 16–17, could be the next major catalyst for global risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
Mark Skousen, the economist who foresaw the 1987 market collapse, believes the current financial environment is entering a precarious phase.
Across Asia, the U.S. dollar is rapidly losing ground as countries intensify efforts to reduce reliance on the greenback.
Despite encouraging job numbers on the surface, JPMorgan Chase’s chief global strategist David Kelly says the U.S. economy is quietly losing momentum.