Speculation Mounts as Cardano ETF Odds Rise, Network Activity Surges

The likelihood of a spot Cardano (ADA) exchange-traded fund (ETF) getting the green light by the end of 2025 is gaining momentum—at least in the eyes of the betting markets.

According to decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, traders now place a 55% probability on approval, a sharp climb from just 10% earlier this year.

The surge in optimism follows the successful launches of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S., which have opened the door to broader regulatory acceptance. If ADA follows suit, it could attract a new wave of institutional capital—something Cardano supporters believe will fuel both adoption and price growth.

While analysts point to Cardano’s energy-efficient proof-of-stake system and active ecosystem development as compelling fundamentals, some remain cautious. Regulatory clarity remains fluid, and many warn that sentiment could shift quickly based on political or legal developments.

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Meanwhile, on-chain activity is showing signs of life. Blockchain data from Cardanoscan reveals a steady increase in daily transactions, with numbers rising from around 30,000 at the start of May to nearly 50,000 by mid-month. Though far from historic highs, the consistent throughput signals growing network engagement beyond speculation.

As investors weigh the potential for an ADA ETF, real-world usage may play a bigger role than ever in shaping the asset’s future trajectory.

Alexander Stefanov