Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macro, has revised his market outlook following a widespread decline in stock prices.
Timmer presented a chart illustrating the average returns of the S&P 500 during different stages of presidential terms.
The data suggests the index is largely following historical trends, with the current downturn potentially concluding by mid-year.
While Timmer cautioned against overemphasizing this pattern, he noted that the cycle’s mid-term year (2022) has played out as expected.
Currently in the “fifth year” of the presidential cycle, which typically sees declines in the first half, Timmer expects the market to experience a mild, extended correction.
Timmer also provided a closer look at 26 S&P 500 corrections dating back to 1906, observing that the ongoing pullback mirrors the 2018 market dip.
He anticipates that the S&P 500 might reach a bottom near the 4,900 level. After a brief recovery last week, he noted that markets remain in a 10% correction, uncertain whether the next phase will see a rise or fall.
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