Solana’s Gains May Be Deceiving, Warns Market Strategist

Solana’s recent gains may not tell the full story, according to MakroVision CEO Joao Wedson, who believes the SOL/BTC pair is on track for continued underperformance.

Despite SOL posting nearly 30% growth over the past month—outpacing Bitcoin’s 24% climb—Wedson suggests that the underlying structure signals trouble ahead.

In his market review, Wedson compared Solana’s current trajectory to a previous cycle observed in the ETH/BTC chart. He argues that Solana has entered what appears to be a distribution phase—an early sign of weakening momentum. If Bitcoin experiences even a mild pullback, Wedson warns that Solana’s dollar value could drop significantly faster by comparison.

He also notes that this dynamic could boost Bitcoin dominance in the broader market, potentially limiting altcoin upside in the short term. The coming 45 days, he says, will be crucial for determining Solana’s position within the ongoing cycle.

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Beyond Solana, Wedson also highlighted intriguing macro trends. He pointed out a strong and growing correlation between Bitcoin and traditional equities, particularly Microsoft—marking the tightest correlation since 2017. Even more surprisingly, he observed similar behavior between BTC and stocks like Vida and China’s Industrial and Commercial Bank (ICBC), hinting at a growing crossover between digital assets and global finance.

While Solana bulls may find comfort in its recent performance, Wedson’s analysis offers a cautionary perspective: relative strength isn’t always sustainable when key structural patterns suggest fragility beneath the surface.

Alexander Stefanov