Potential Impact of Donald Trump Presidency on Bitcoin (BTC)

As the US presidential election nears, crypto traders and analysts speculate a Donald Trump victory could significantly boost Bitcoin, per the Financial Times.

Despite post-Halving rally hopes, Bitcoin faces challenges since April—US and German asset sales and a $9 billion Mt Gox overhang. Market talk centers on a potential “Trump trade” lifting Bitcoin later in 2024.

Post-Halving in April, Bitcoin fell 20% in a month amid factors like $15 billion in governmental sales and hedge funds dampening volatility. Traders seek a catalyst for Bitcoin’s next move up.

Trump’s viewed as crypto-friendly, with optimism growing about his victory benefiting the industry and regulations. Analysts suggest Trump’s energy policies could aid crypto mining. Concerns linger over Biden’s past crypto tax proposals.

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Potential Trump policies—higher US deficit, tariffs, and tax cuts—could raise inflation and Treasury yields, influencing Bitcoin as a hedge, notes Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick.

Impact of a “Trump trade” on Bitcoin hinges on Trump’s election rival. RealClearPolitics Betting puts Trump at 55%, Biden at 16.5%. Biden staying could boost Bitcoin bulls; a new contender may stymie gains. Narratives and perceptions drive market sentiment, potentially bolstering Bitcoin on belief in a Trump win.

Alexander Stefanov