Matrixport Warns of Bitcoin Dip After Hitting This Target

Bitcoin has officially reached the $116,000 milestone, a level previously forecasted by crypto services firm Matrixport using its proprietary seasonal modeling.

While the surge validates their earlier projection, the firm is now shifting focus—highlighting a possible near-term pullback as historical patterns and macro headwinds begin to converge.

Caution clouds late-summer crypto rally

In its latest market note, Matrixport points to several upcoming events that could disrupt market momentum. Among them: a heavy lineup of corporate earnings from major U.S. companies, a delayed government update on digital asset policy, and a crucial interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. These elements, the firm says, are likely to inject new volatility into an otherwise bullish environment.

Though sentiment across the crypto sector remains strong, Matrixport warns that these macro triggers could shake up short-term price action and encourage profit-taking.

Historical patterns suggest softness ahead

Matrixport’s research also draws attention to seasonal headwinds. Data across the past decade reveals that August and September are often the weakest periods for Bitcoin, with August especially showing lackluster average returns and only a few positive outcomes. As a result, traders tend to scale back positions and lock in gains ahead of these months.

This seasonal weakness, combined with the uncertain macro backdrop, creates a setup that may favor a tactical correction—even if longer-term trends remain intact.

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Year-end optimism holds

Despite signaling short-term caution, Matrixport has not changed its broader stance. The firm remains bullish heading into the final quarter of 2025, expecting favorable conditions to return later in the year as institutional demand, ETF inflows, and regulatory clarity continue to evolve.

For now, though, Matrixport urges market participants to be tactically defensive. After a successful ride to $116K, the crypto market may be due for a cooling period before the next leg higher unfolds.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.