JPMorgan Sees Slow Growth Ahead But No Recession in 2025

JPMorgan Chase’s chief global strategist has expressed a cautious view of the U.S. economy, suggesting that while a full recession may be avoided, the near-term outlook points to slow and uneven growth.

The bank’s internal forecasts have shifted in recent months, largely due to new fiscal measures and delayed economic impacts from recent legislation.

A large tax package scheduled to provide economic stimulus in 2026, along with some minor effects beginning in 2025, is expected to provide a cushion that reduces the likelihood of a recession this year.

Despite this support, several risk factors remain. Ongoing tariff pressures, tightening conditions in the government sector, and the resumption of student loan repayments are combining to place strain on consumer spending. While consumers have shown resilience, the accumulation of financial stress is beginning to weigh on broader demand.

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Economic activity is not expected to contract significantly, but growth will likely be sluggish throughout the year. JPMorgan’s assessment suggests that while the risk of a downturn has lessened, momentum in the economy will remain fragile. Inflationary concerns stemming from trade policies and global uncertainty add further complexity to the outlook.

Overall, the bank sees the U.S. economy navigating through a period of slow growth rather than entering a formal recession, driven by temporary fiscal support and moderate resilience in key sectors.

Alexander Stefanov