Is Bitcoin Repeating Its 2019 Downtrend? Analyst Issues Warning

A well-known crypto analyst is raising concerns that Bitcoin might be following a bearish trajectory similar to 2019 due to a key macroeconomic factor.

Benjamin Cowen highlights a historical pattern linking Bitcoin’s performance to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. He suggests that just as Bitcoin struggled to stay above the bull market support band in 2019, it could face similar challenges now.

This support level is determined by the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).

Cowen attributes this potential downturn to ongoing quantitative tightening by the Fed. He notes that back in 2019, Bitcoin dropped below key support levels when the central bank adjusted its policies amid economic concerns.

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A similar situation is unfolding now, with the Atlanta Fed forecasting negative GDP growth for Q1, alongside persistent inflation worries and trade tensions.

However, Cowen believes a Bitcoin recovery is possible if the S&P 500 rebounds from its recent losses. He points out that stock market cycles often bottom out around mid-March or, in some cases, by mid-April.

If equities stabilize, Bitcoin may have a chance to reclaim its bullish momentum. The key question, he says, is whether the S&P 500 continues to weaken or finds support sooner than expected, which would influence Bitcoin’s ability to break back above critical resistance levels.

Alexander Stefanov