Global Race for Bitcoin? Not Likely Yet, Says Arthur Hayes

The idea that the United States might one day become a large-scale Bitcoin buyer is, in Arthur Hayes’ view, pure fantasy.

The BitMEX co-founder recently pushed back on the concept of a U.S. “strategic reserve” of BTC, suggesting that fiscal reality and political optics make it virtually impossible.

Speaking in an interview on May 1, Hayes dismissed the notion that America would ever proactively build a Bitcoin reserve beyond the holdings it already controls—mostly assets seized through law enforcement actions. Given the nation’s spiraling deficit, he argued, there’s little room to justify printing money to accumulate more crypto.

But the optics matter too. Hayes pointed out that the public perception of Bitcoin—still tied to stereotypical “crypto bro” culture—would make such a policy a hard sell for any politician trying to appeal to mainstream voters. “Would a public official really want to associate monetary strategy with nightclub selfies and meme coins?” he mused.

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While the U.S. government holds close to 200,000 BTC through past seizures, such as those tied to the Silk Road and Bitfinex incidents, there’s no indication it plans to add more. However, Hayes’ skepticism contrasts with growing speculation that geopolitical competition over Bitcoin could heat up. At a recent industry event in Dubai, 1inch’s Sergej Kunz suggested that if the U.S. made any further moves toward hoarding Bitcoin, it could trigger a global rush among smaller nations trying to keep up.

Switching gears to market structure, Hayes also reaffirmed his belief that Bitcoin’s market cycle remains predictable. He expects the same pattern to repeat: Bitcoin rallies first, hits dominance highs, and then capital begins to rotate into altcoins. He sees Bitcoin’s dominance rising to 70%, just as it did prior to the 2021 altcoin boom.

However, not everyone is convinced that dominance metrics still matter. Analysts like Benjamin Cowen have suggested Bitcoin’s dominance will stall around 60%, while others argue that today’s altcoin momentum operates independently of BTC trends. CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju, for example, believes altseasons are now driven more by stablecoin and fiat pairings, rather than Bitcoin outflows.

At present, BTC’s dominance is trending around 65%, reflecting a clear shift since the start of the year—though whether the historical cycle repeats as Hayes predicts remains to be seen.

Alexander Stefanov