Bitwise CIO: The Four-Year Crypto Cycle is Breaking Down

The classic four-year crypto market cycle—long driven by Bitcoin halvings and boom-bust investor behavior—is losing relevance, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.

In a recent post, Hougan argued that the underlying forces that shaped past market cycles have weakened, while new, longer-term dynamics are taking over.

Halvings, macro cycles, and blow-up risks matter less

At the core of Hougan’s thesis is the idea that traditional cycle triggers are no longer dominant. The Bitcoin halving, once a major supply shock, now has only half the impact it had in prior cycles. Meanwhile, macroeconomic conditions that previously aligned with market corrections—such as the rising-rate environments of 2018 and 2022—have flipped in crypto’s favor.

Additionally, the risk of catastrophic platform failures, like FTX or Terra, is fading. Regulatory frameworks are tightening, and institutional controls are improving. “Blow-up risk is attenuated,” Hougan notes, pointing to the rising maturity of the crypto ecosystem.

However, he flags one emerging risk that could mimic old cycle behavior: the rise of Treasury-focused crypto companies. These entities could inject cyclical volatility if poorly managed.

Larger forces now shaping multi-year growth

Instead of short-term catalysts, Hougan sees deeper, slower-moving forces taking the lead. The flow of capital into crypto ETFs—starting in 2024—is likely to play out over 5 to 10 years. Institutional adoption remains in early stages, with pensions, endowments, and major advisory platforms only beginning to integrate crypto access.

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Regulatory progress has also turned a corner, particularly with the 2025 passage of the Genius Act. This legislation has unlocked fresh Wall Street interest, and Hougan believes traditional finance will now commit billions to crypto infrastructure in the coming quarters.

Looking to 2026 and beyond

While Hougan expects volatility to persist, he sees the future not as a supercycle, but as a sustained, steady boom driven by fundamental demand. “I think 2026 will be a good year,” he wrote, predicting that long-term institutional momentum will outweigh legacy market rhythms.

As the cycle paradigm shifts, investors may need to trade patience for precision—and short-term charts for structural conviction.

Kosta Gushterov

Kosta has been working in the crypto industry for over 4 years. He strives to present different perspectives on a given topic and enjoys the sector for its transparency and dynamism. In his work, he focuses on balanced coverage of events and developments in the crypto space, providing information to his readers from a neutral perspective.