Bitcoin’s Market Cycle May Peak Alongside Predicted 2025 Recession, New Research Shows

Copper.co’s latest research indicates that Bitcoin’s current market cycle could peak in around 200 days, potentially aligning with a forecasted U.S. recession by mid-2025.

Bitcoin is currently at day 554 in this cycle, which typically averages 756 days from the point of positive annual market cap growth to peak price. Copper.co suggests that this cycle began in mid-2023, coinciding with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF filing, and may culminate around mid-2025 if past trends hold.

JPMorgan’s recession probability of 45% for late 2025 suggests Bitcoin’s peak may overlap with economic challenges, which could impact investment strategies.

Bitcoin’s realized volatility stands at 50%, with implied volatility recently peaking for the year—signs of potential market turbulence but with possible bullish implications as 2025 approaches.

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Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 60, below previous bull peaks, but Copper.co’s extended four-year analysis shows potential for upward growth. Meanwhile, inactive Bitcoin supply remains high, indicating strong holding behavior, though movement by these holders could signal market shifts.

Copper.co’s report underscores the importance of tracking market cycles, volatility, and economic forecasts to understand Bitcoin’s outlook.

Alexander Zdravkov