Bitcoin’s Decoupling from Stocks? Arthur Hayes Shares Bold Prediction

Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, has made a bold statement regarding Bitcoin's role in the changing global financial landscape.

He believes that Bitcoin holders should start embracing tariffs, predicting a major shift in how fiat liquidity is perceived. Hayes argues that Bitcoin is on track to become a more accurate gauge of fiat liquidity than traditional markets like the Nasdaq.

Reflecting on recent market movements, Hayes pointed out that while the Nasdaq dropped by nearly 6% in a single session, Bitcoin remained unexpectedly resilient. Despite a brief 3% swing during the day, BTC ended with a gain, which Hayes sees as a sign of Bitcoin beginning to decouple from U.S. equities.

Looking back at economic history, Hayes noted that since the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971, the country’s Treasury debt has surged dramatically. He believes that the U.S. has been creating credit to fuel global economic expansion, but the rewards have not been shared equally. According to Hayes, Trump’s election highlighted a growing dissatisfaction among those who felt left behind by this uneven prosperity.

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Hayes also warned that eliminating the U.S. current account deficit would have far-reaching consequences for international capital flows. He explained that without the deficit, foreign investors would find it harder to purchase U.S. assets, leading them to sell off American bonds and stocks to fund their own economies. This shift could mark the beginning of a new era where countries prioritize their domestic interests over global financial integration.

He further speculated about a potential return to gold as a key reserve asset. Hayes believes that even if the dollar remains dominant, gold could regain prominence in global trade due to its exemption from tariffs. In his view, this new monetary order would see gold moving more freely and cost-effectively across borders, reflecting a move toward a more neutral asset in international commerce.

Alexander Stefanov