Bitcoin’s Changing Trends: Lower Returns, Less Risk

Bitcoin's market behavior has shifted significantly in the current cycle, showcasing patterns distinct from previous bull runs, according to insights from Glassnode, a blockchain analytics platform.

The data examines Bitcoin’s performance since the low point of the last bear market, comparing it to earlier cycles.

Here’s how #Bitcoin’s ROI since cycle low compares to the last two cycles so far:

– 2015-2018: 5.90x
– 2018-2022: 10.47x
– 2022+ (current cycle): 5.98x

This cycle is 26.94% below the average of the last two cycles (8.18x).

View the chart: https://t.co/eCPhKELmAA pic.twitter.com/N4F3g6C0J2

— glassnode (@glassnode) December 11, 2024

During the 2017-2018 bull market, Bitcoin achieved nearly a sixfold increase in value, with a return on investment (ROI) of 5.90x. The following cycle, which spanned 2018 to 2022, saw even greater returns, with Bitcoin rising over tenfold to an ROI of 10.47x. However, the cycle after 2022 tells a different story, with a much more modest ROI of 2.98x—a significant drop from the previous average.

Volatility, a defining trait of Bitcoin’s early years, has noticeably decreased in recent times. Since 2022, the average price correction has been limited to -7.96%, far below the 16.24% seen across earlier cycles. Even the sharpest pullback in this period—26.25%—is a stark contrast to the massive 71.15% drop experienced between 2011 and 2013.

These changes, according to Glassnode analysts, signal Bitcoin’s transformation into a more robust and mature financial asset. The reduced volatility and lower drawdowns indicate growing stability, suggesting Bitcoin is evolving into a less speculative and more reliable store of value.

As of the latest data, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $98,410, staying within a narrow range between $92,092 and $103,647. Despite widespread predictions of significant declines after surpassing the $100,000 milestone, Bitcoin has maintained its resilience, defying expectations of heightened price swings.