Bitcoin Breaking Out? Analysts Say the Downtrend’s Cracking

After weeks of uncertainty, the bearish grip on Bitcoin may finally be easing, according to a recent analysis by crypto research firm Swissblock.

The firm believes shift in momentum is underway as Bitcoin breaks free from its previous compression zone and edges into a more bullish setup.

Swissblock analysts point to a technical transition out of what they describe as a “bearish compression pattern,” suggesting that the market is entering a zone more favorable to upward movement. While a short-term pullback remains possible, they argue that such a dip—potentially down to the $80,000 level—would likely be brief and ultimately pave the way for further gains.

This view is supported by a recent divergence between Bitcoin and traditional markets. Earlier this week, while equities stumbled, Bitcoin held its ground. Swissblock interprets this resilience as a sign that risk appetite may be returning to the crypto space, fueled by what they call a “low-risk regime” approaching in the broader macro landscape.

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Long-term Bitcoin holders also appear to be reinforcing the bullish narrative. Data from Swissblock Technologies indicates that these investors have not been shaken by recent volatility, and that their recent wave of selling was minor in comparison to the drawdowns seen in mid-2024. This suggests that so-called “strong hands” remain firmly committed to their positions.

More striking, however, is what’s happening among Bitcoin’s largest players. According to the report, whale wallets—those holding massive quantities of BTC—are once again accumulating. Swissblock notes that the total holdings among these large entities have climbed to a one-year high and are approaching levels not seen since before the most recent halving event, which occurred on April 19, 2024.

“Whales are positioning aggressively,” Swissblock noted, adding that major players appear to be waiting for the right opportunity to reenter the market in force. “Their activity is helping stabilize the price, and it’s clear that accumulation is ramping up.”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $84,490. With whale activity increasing and the broader trend beginning to shift, market participants are watching closely to see whether this is the early stage of a new bullish phase—or just a pause before more volatility.

Alexander Stefanov